I haven’t been able to make any predictions about the Republican campaign ever since Donald Trump insulted John McCain’s war record, but in the two weeks since the most recent debate things have kind of snapped into focus.
The Donald will fall; of this I am now (finally) sure. His opponents seem to have found an effective way to attack him, which is to be indirectly dismissive while pivoting to strong statements about policy. As summer turns to fall, this will play well — with increasing numbers of voters, but especially with media. It was Carly’s clean jab about his comment about her face that lit the way. Others will follow from all sides. We can see his numbers already starting to slip a bit. As voters start to move on from him, he’ll try to re-insert himself into the top tier by saying something totally outrageous. But what worked in June won’t work in October, and at that point, with other candidates making their big moves, he will seem childish, not bold. Unless he has something else going on behind the bluster, I think he’s through.
Carly will ride high for a while, but I don’t think it will last. Her record at HP will leave her vulnerable, both on the merits (she apparently was really a terrible CEO?) and from an electability standpoint (Mitt Romney 2.0). And while she came across as really knowledgeable on foreign policy (Sixth Fleet, anyone?), I heard Chuck Todd on the radio the other day saying that her answers were basically identical to the ones she gave him on Meet the Press a few weeks ago. I haven’t verified that, but I’m willing to be she lacks a second gear, policy-wise. Plus, I don’t think she’ll fight that hard. After that debate, the book advances will come pouring in whenever she decides to get out.
Same goes for Carson. The “Ben The Friendly Neurosurgeon” schtick does hold appeal (wouldn’t that be a great PBS cartoon?), but as the debate goes on and on I think he’ll fade from the conversation without offering more substance, which he clearly doesn’t have. I know his following is loyal but I just can’t see him keeping his head above water when things start to get really heated, which they will.
Walker is out. And I don’t really need to explain why Rand, Pataki, Graham, Santorum, Jindal, and Gilmore have no shot, do I? Could you pick more than two of those guys out of a police lineup?
That leaves us with six candidates who are clinging to varying degrees of viability by Christmas: on Team Establishment, we’ll have Bush, Kasich, Christie, and Rubio; on Team Zealotry, there are Huckabee and Cruz. I think Cruz will relatively quickly consolidate the far right, while Rubio will eventually win out over his competitors to consolidate the Establishment wing.
I might even be too kind to Huckabee by including him in the final round. He’s terrible at raising money and just never seemed to grasp the logistical demands of a presidential campaign. I think he just likes going on TV and being folksy, I really do. Cruz is cunning, has raised a lot of money, and knows exactly how to lather up his audience. He also clearly wants it more.
That Rubio will consolidate Establishment support is a little less certain. We know Bush has all the money and the greatest share of endorsements, etc. I just think he’s not credible enough with people who really identify as conservatives, and not comfortable enough with the bright lights on him. Maybe a switch will flip sometime in the fall and he’ll re-discover some level of candidate talent he may have had fifteen years ago, but I don’t see it based on everything that’s happened so far. Christie got himself some breathing room with the debate performance, but with a possible indictment hanging over his head he’s not a safe bet. I do think Kasich is more than the John Huntsman of this cycle, but that Medicaid thing in Ohio is going to be hard for everyone to get over. He’d be a great general election candidate, but I think his tone is off for this year’s GOP electorate.
That leaves Rubio, who is my worst nightmare general election candidate. Establishment voters feel totally safe voting for him, but he’s been popular with some real conservatives in the past. Moreover, he’s just way, way better at weaving together ideology, biography, and policy into a coherent message than any other Republican candidate. He’s been playing it cool since he declared, which is the right call; he should feel confident that when the number of voices in the room dwindles to a handful, his will really stand out — ESPECIALLY as voters start to really think, “OK, who is going to kick Hillary Clinton’s ass?”
Neither Cruz nor Rubio may be leading in national polls when we head into Iowa, but my money is on those two being the last ones standing. Which will win? Usually, it’s the Establishment candidate who can most credibly echo the concerns of base voters that ends up winning. And Rubio can certainly be that guy. But a couple of things make me stop short of predicting a Rubio presidency (he would definitely beat Hillary).
First, that rule about a candidate from the Establishment winning, as opposed to one of the base’s chosen candidates, relies on the fact that most base candidates taking themselves out of contention for some reason or another. Sometimes they are terrible at raising money, like Mike Huckabee; other times, they say crazy shit, like Herman Cain. But Cruz is the rare base candidate who actually knows what he’s doing in this political system.
Second, the Establishment slice of the GOP voter pie isn’t that big, and Rubio will have to share it with Bush, Christie, and Kasich, all of whom are talented and to some degree well-funded candidates. I think as soon as voting starts, Cruz will consolidate the far right and have it all to himself.
That brings me to the primary schedule, the first six weeks of which are comprised of states that are dominated by the very conservative, totally uncompromising, sanctimonious, and permanently aggrieved voters that Cruz has been working to earn the trust of with every move he has made since his election to the Senate in 2012.
Let’s take a look:
February 1: Iowa
February 9: New Hampshire
February 20: South Carolina
February 23: Nevada
March 1: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 5: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana
March 8: Hawaii, Mississippi, Michigan
March 13: Puerto Rico
March 15: Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri
With Iowa and all those southern states between February 1 and March 8, it’s likely that a major “Cruz is Crushing” narrative takes hold. He’ll probably also amass a significant delegate lead.
Rubio won’t quit easily; the Establishment will throw everything they have at defeating Cruz. On March 15th, the Florida Senator will almost certainly win his home state. I also think he would defeat Cruz in Illinois. The battleground here is Ohio. If Cruz wins it, I think he’ll ultimately wrap up the nomination. If it goes to Rubio, March 16th will see a lot of “The Establishment Strikes Back” headlines and the race will be tied from a narrative/momentum perspective.
I really don’t know who would win a Rubio - Cruz heavyweight match heading into the spring. Their respective strengths and weaknesses are evenly matched. Plus, I’d have to wade way deeper into each state’s delegate totals and the whole remaining primary calendar to try and predict it, and I don’t want to go to all that trouble yet.
But I will predict that Cruz and Rubio will be the last two standing, and that theirs will be a race to remember.